MATERIALS AND METHODS

Some statistical models as the general time trend equations, multi-linear and logarithmic regression analysis were used for the descriptive and quantitative economic analysis.

Using statistical analysis by SPSS obtained the most important factors influencing quantities imported for the dairy industry in Egypt, during the period (2008-2015) as independent variables (the official exchange rate of the pound, the consumer price index and the producer price index), the imported quantities of dairy supplies in Egypt in tons as a dependent variable (milk powder, protein concentrates, emulsifiers, gelatin). Using multiple regression models to determine the most important independent factors that may affect the amount of imports of dairy supplies from this form can determine the impact of the Egyptian pound against the dollar on foreign trade, as well as the impact of other variables that are selected and placed in the form^3,4:

Linear model: y_i = a+B₁x_1t-1+B₂x_2t-1+B₃x_3t-1

Logarithmic model: lny_i = a+B₁lnx_1t-1+B₂lnx_2t-1+B₃lnx_3t-1

The data sources of research relied on time series data and statistical bulletins from the Ministry of trade and industry, the Economic Affairs sector of the Ministry of agriculture and land reclamation and the Central public mobilization and statistics services. In addition to some reports and scientific references and publications and research related to research topics.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Evolution of the Egyptian pound against the dollar during the period (2008-2015): Reviewing the evolution of Egyptian pound against the dollar shows a decline of about 5.30 pounds/dollar in January, 2008 to about 7.94 pounds/dollar in December, 2015 down 2.640 pounds/dollar and estimated 49.81%. Estimating the equation of general time trend of yearly evolution of the Egyptian pound against the dollar in Egypt showed that, the Egyptian pound against the dollar has taken a decreasing trend and statistically significant by an annual decrease of about 0.027 pounds/dollar, representing approximately 0.43% of the overall average. The average selection coefficient (R^–2) that 91% of the emerging changes in the value of the Egyptian pound against the dollar mainly due to the time factor and that about 9%. Due to other factors not measured in function during the study period as shown in the following equation:

R^–2 = 0.91 F = 1008.15**

This was confirmed by the drop in the pound against the dollar following the outbreak of the global financial crisis from 5.30 pounds in July, 2008 to 5.63 pounds in April, 2009, due to the decrease in foreign investments in Egypt from an average of 10 billion dollars a year to 6 billion dollars². The repercussions of the global crisis on the Euro-zone (the EU countries) began to appear, which led to a reduction in the volume of foreign investments from the EU to the developing world, including Egypt⁵, until the revolution broke out on January 25, 2011. The dollar exchange rate continued to rise by 5% against the pound during the period from January, 2011 to December, 2012 and then achieved an additional rise of 5% in 2013, leading to the cessation of foreign exchange revenues and stop the influx of capital and the departure of foreign direct investment from the market.

The food industry was one of the sectors that are affected severely of the pound against the dollar, the percentage change in the consumer price index in Egypt at the end increased approximately 11.9% in 2015 from that at the end of 2014, while the same ratio in the meat and dairy prices by 8.3 and 10.7% over the same period^2,6. During the period of 2012-2016 the dollar crisis severely affected the pharmaceutical, dairy, food and metal industries in Egypt^2,7.

Current status of Egyptian imports of dairy supplies in Egypt (2008-2015): The dairy industry in Egypt depend upon many imported dairy supplies either for lack of an alternative, local or non-local alternative, but the dairy industry in Egypt have many economic and social dimensions.

Economic importance of dairy production in Egypt: By extra polating the data Table 1 and 2, which displays the evolution of the value of agricultural production and livestock and dairy production in Egypt (2008-2015) the following economic indicators.

Agricultural output value: The value of agricultural production represent great economic importance, since it turns out that the average annual value of agricultural production during the study period was about 252.2 billion pounds. Where, the value of agricultural production increased from approximately 185.6 million pounds in 2008 to about 318.3 billion pounds in 2015 agricultural output value was tightened up approximately 21.1 billion pounds, representing about 8.35% of the average period of study and this increase has proven significance at level 0.01.

Table 1:	Relative importance of dairy production value for national production and agricultural and livestock and dairy in Egypt (2008-2015). (value millionth pounds)
Source: Ministry of agriculture and land reclamation, economic affairs sector, agricultural income, bulletin, setting (2008-2015)

Table 2:	General time trend equations for production value of the agricultural, livestock and dairy (2008-2015)
Estimated value of the dependent variable per annum, Factors linked to the time period, years 1, 2, 3,........., 8, **Level of significance (0.01%). Source: compiled and calculated from Table 1

Table 3:	Estimation of the quantities of the most important imported dairy products for some dairy products in Egypt 2015
Source: 2, 8, 9, 10, 11

Value of animal production: The average annual value of animal production was approximately 90.3 billion pounds and represented 35.5% of the average value of agricultural production. The animal production value rose from about 65.1 billion pounds in 2008 to about 119.4 billion pounds in 2015, taking the value of animal production during the study period an increasing trend year-approximately 8.1 billion pounds represent 8.95% of the average value of animal production has proven to increase morality at level 0.01.

Value of dairy production: The average annual value of dairy production was around 23.3 billion pounds, representing approximately 25.79% of animal production and contributes towards 9.23% of the value of agricultural production, dairy production value rose from about 17.8 million pounds in 2008 to about 28.9 billion pounds in 2013 and dairy production value were taken during the search direction years tightened up around 1.5 billion pounds a year, representing around 6.63% of the average value of dairy production moral proved at level 0.01.

Estimation of used quantities of the most important imported dairy products: The data in Table 3 shows the quantities used of some imported raw materials in year 2015.

Gelatin^2,8,9: Ice cream is one of the most important products that enter gelatin in its industry and Egypt imports about 150,000 kg of gelatin worth about 7.977 million pounds by 2015, Egypt produces an estimated 40.5 thousand tons of ice cream used About 121.5 thousand kg of gelatin.

Emulsifying salts^2,9,10: Egypt imports about 117 t of salts of emulsification with an estimated value of 2.277 million pounds. Emulsifying salts are used in the manufacture of cooked cheese. Egypt produces about 223.5 thousand tons of processed cheese. It uses about 6.7 thousand tons.

Milk Powder^2,9,11: Egypt imports about 3.7 thousand tons of milk powder with an estimated value of 81.075 million pounds. In many products, milk powder was replaced by natural milk. It was used in the manufacture of white cheese and cooked cheese, representing about 25% each.

Fig. 1:	Evolution of dairy import quantity from powder milk (ton) (2008-2015)

Egypt produces about 223.5, 122.3 thousand tons of each, respectively and used about 55.874, 30.5 thousand t of milk powder each in production.

Evolution of Egyptian imports quantity and value of the main requirements of the dairy industry (2008-2015): Dairy production in Egypt based on many production requirements of the local and imported ones, the most important inputs imported from abroad in dairy powder and protein status, some preparations used in food industry, gelatin and emulsifiers (according to the customs tariff of the Harmonized System (HS code), the milk powder under the customs item 0402, the emulsifying materials, the protein concentrates and the food preparations are classified under the customs item 2106 and the gelatin within the customs item 3503).

Evolution of the Egyptian imports of milk powder during the period (2008-2015)²: Through the evolution of Egyptian imports of powdered milk quantity notes an increase in the amount of imports during the period from February-May of each year during the study period (except as a result of the political unrest in 2013), Fig. 1. The increased imports of powdered milk dramatically during the period of January-July, 2014 was due to the decline in world prices for dairy powder significantly increased particularly in Europe after the Russian banned to import milk powder from Europe. Where, prices fell to about 5000 dollars baby milk per ton to about 2400 dollars a ton from 2013 until December, 2014¹.

Estimating the general time trend shown in the Table 4, the evolution of imports quantity milk powder is in Egypt showed that the amount of milk powder imported taken an increasing trend with an annual statistical significant increment of about 45.731 t, representing about 1.37% of the overall average of about 3322 t, a value of the coefficient of determination (R^–2) to 15% of the emerging changes in the amount of imports was mainly due to the time factor and the remaining were due to other factors not measured in function during the study period.

The general time trend equation indicates that the year of import value in Egyptian pound and dollar, respectively as shown in the Table 4 to increase statistical moral about 728.28 thousand pounds, about $89.80 and representing about 1.44 and 1.18% of the average value of imports respectively. The value of the coefficient of determination (R^–2) to 32 and 25%, respectively, of the emerging changes in imports due to the time factor and the rest was attributable to other factors not measured in function during the study period.

Development of Egyptian imports of protein concentrates²: Figure 2 shows the development of Protein concentrates imports quantity (2008-2015). It was found that the average annual quantity of imports of protein concentrates was about 468.2 t during the study, the average was between the sword reached about 4 t in 6/2009 and their subordinate about 331.4 t in 12/2014, increasing lack of 863.2, reached 464.2 t, respectively on annual average.

Fig. 2:	Evolution of protein concentrates imports quantity in tons (2008-2015)

Table 4:	General time trend equations of quantity and value of Egyptian imports from most dairy supplies in Egypt (2008-2015)
**Significant at 1%, *5% in significant

Table 5:	Outcome indicators of the Egyptian imports of production requirements for dairy products
Source:12,compiled and calculated from the international information network Internet

Fig. 3:	Evolution of imports emulsifiers in tons (2008-2015)

In reviewing the evolution of protein concentrates imports reflected an increase in imports of protein concentrates from January-December of each year during the study period (except in 2013 as a result of the political unrest), with a significant increase in early 2014 and until the end of the study period. This may be due to the inability of local alternative protein concentrates on meeting the needs of the dairy industry in Egypt. By measuring the general time direction equations that are shown in the Table 4 the evolution of imports quantity protein concentrates in Egypt showed that, the quantity of imports shows an increased significant statistical trend with an annual increment of about 11.57 t, representing about 2.47% of the overall average of about 468.2 t. The value of the coefficient of determination R^–2 illustrated that 71% of the emerging changes in the amount of imports was mainly due to the time factor and the remaining were due to other factors not measured in function during the study period. Also, the general time trend equation indicates the import value of protein concentrates in Egyptian pound and dollar, respectively to increase statistical moral about 111.253 thousand pounds, about 13.838 thousand dollars and representing about 2.22 and 1.85% of the average value of imports, respectively. As well as, the value of the coefficient of determination R^–2 to 68 and 62%, respectively, of changes in the value of imports was due to the time factor and the rest was attributable to other factors not measured in function during the study period.

Evolution of Egyptian imports of emulsifiers²: Figure 3 illustrates the quantity of imports of emulsifier’s materials during development period (2008-2015) that there is a relative stability in quantities imported (except in August, 2013).The estimated annual average quantity of imports of emulsifiers is approximately 121 t during the study, the average is between the sword reached 473 t of bands around 8/2010 and their lower about 1 t 1/2009, to increase and lack of 345.6 reached 120 t, the annual average, respectively.

Estimating the general time trend and shown in the Table 4 the evolution of imports quantity emulsifiers in Egypt showed no increase in the amount of moral Egyptian imports emulsifiers during the study period and equation of general time trend of import value emulsifiers in Egyptian pound and dollar to lack moral value statistically increased during the study period. This lack of statistically moral increase in both quantities and values imported from emulsifiers was due to the Egyptian producer use an alternative product which was the local product as a variant that was due to the high world prices for emulsifiers during that period, with the growth rate in those prices about 28% during the period 2008-2015.

Evolution of Egyptian imports of gelatin²: Figure 4 illustrate the evolution of imports quantity of gelatin during the period (2008-2015), the average annual quantity of imports of gelatin is about 133 t during the study. The average was between the sword reached 569 t of bands around 8/2010, some 4.7 t in their Junior 8/2009, to increase and shortfall 436 and 564.3 t more than the annual average, respectively.

Fig. 4:	Amount of imports of gelatin in tons (2008-2015)

The evolution of imports of gelatin indicate that there was a relative stability in the amount of imports with spikes in imports during the third quarter of 2009, 2010 and 2011, due to some constraints for local gelatin industry in Egypt such as the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, which affected the number of the slaughtered animals (which was the main component of the MCD gelatin).In addition, there were are some governmental decisions to transfer tanneries (rattan gelatin) to other industrial areas away from the residential blocks, which affecting the quantities produced of gelatin locally and imported alternative manufacturers. Also, results predicted that the specifications of the imported gelatin was best for the dairy industry than the local gelatin, due to low of the production technology in Egypt of the gelatin manufacturing processes compared to other countries, indicating the importance of Egyptian side interest to develop global developments of gelatin industry in this area.

Estimating the general time trend shown in Table 4, the evolution of imports amount to gelatin in Egypt, showed no increase in those moral quantities imported during the study period. As well as, the equation of general time trend of Egyptian imports of gelatin in Egyptian pound and dollar, respectively as shown in the same table to increase statistical moral nearly 72.651,000 pounds, about 7.821 thousand $ represent approximately 1.27 and 0.89% of the average value of imports, respectively. The value of the coefficient of determination R^–2 46 and 28%, respectively, of changes in the value of imports was due to the time factor and the rest was attributable to other factors not measured in function during the study period.

Indicators of the Egyptian imports of dairy supplies and geographical distribution of major exporting countries¹²: Egypt depends heavily on European countries to import the production requirements for the dairy industry, where the European Union is the largest exporter of such products worldwide. The results in the Table 5, showed the most important indicators of the Egyptian imports of those items involved in the manufacture of dairy products during the period (2008-2015) which include the following.

A study of the most important factors affecting the Egyptian imports of production requirements associated with dairy products: Pound is considered and the availability of foreign currency are the most important determinants for the import operation in Egypt, especially imports of production inputs to complete various manufacturing processes in general¹³ and production requirements for dairy manufacturing in particular, through the model used to measure the impact of exchange rate on Egyptian imports of key inputs used in the manufacture of dairy products.

Regression analysis method was used for linear and Log it Models progress to determine the most important independent factors, which may affect the amount of imports of dairy supplies. This model could see devaluations of the Egyptian pound against the dollar on the import of most dairy supplies, as well as the impact of other variables that were selected. Where, the study found that the best sports pictures are appropriate and consistent with economic and statistical logic as shown in Table 6.

Estimation results of the statistical model used to measure the impact of exchange rate on Egyptian imports of key inputs used in the manufacture of dairy products (2008-2015) indicate that^{6, 14}
First: The Eq.1 in the Table 6 refers to the existence of a direct correlation between the producer price index and the amount of Egyptian imports of milk powder, the producer price index by 1% more Egyptian imports of milk powder by about 81.99 t, while indicating an inverse relationship between the total quantity of imports of milk powder, the official rate of the dollar. Also, found an inverse relationship between the quantity of imports and consumer price index, indicating producers bear the burdens of higher production costs than the consumer in order to maintain higher prices to ensure a minimum level of consumption ensures continuation of production processes and moral doesn't prove the rest of the factors. As indicated in Eq. 2 in the double logarithmic in Table 6 that the pound against the dollar and the producer price index of the most important factors affecting the amount of Egyptian imports of milk powder. So, that the exchange rate of the pound single unit leads to lower Egyptian imports by 269 t, model has proven to be moral.

Second: The Eq. 3 in the Table 6 the existence of a direct correlation between the price of the dollar amount of the Egyptian imports of protein concentrates. As it turns out having a direct correlation between the producer price index and the amount of Egyptian imports of protein concentrates, the greater the number of producer prices by 1% more Egyptian imports of milk powder by about 7.981 t. While, indicating an inverse relationship between the quantity of imports and consumer price index.

Table 6:	Statistical model used to estimate results of measuring the impact of exchange rate on Egyptian imports of key inputs used in the manufacture of dairy products (2008-2015)
Estimated value of the dependent variable per annum. **Level of significance (0.01%), non-moral, Source: Compiled and calculated data of the central agency for public mobilization and statistics, foreign trade database, the central agency for public mobilization and statistics, published price indices for producers and consumers

Table 7:	Matrix of most important factors affecting the import requirements of the dairy industry and its products (2008-2015)

While, explaining the Eq. 4 dual logarithmic image in Table 6 to pound against the dollar and the producer price index of the most important factors affecting the amount of Egyptian imports of protein concentrates, moral proved form and the coefficient of determination (R^–2) toward 0.69 indicating that 69% due to change in variables (x₁), (x₃) and did not demonstrate moral (x₂).

Third: The Eq. 5 in the Table 6 indicates the existence of a direct correlation between the price of the dollar and the amount of Egyptian imports of emulsifiers, that the lower the value of the pound against the dollar by one pound led to decrease the amount of imports from emulsifiers rose 13.39 t. As it turns out having an inverse relationship between the producer price index and consumer price index and the amount of Egyptian imports of emulsifiers, didn't prove generally form moral and explains that the trend toward local alternative producers emulsifiers and stresses that the lack of moral time trend year for quantities imported for high world prices by about 28% during the period (2008-2015) as seen in Table 4. The Eq. 3 as logarithmic Table 6 shows that the pound against the dollar is the most important factors affecting the amount of Egyptian imports of emulsifiers as one unit exchange rate leads to lower Egyptian imports by about 173 t, not proven significance form in General.

Fourth: The Eq. 7 in Table 6 shows the existence of a direct correlation between the producer price index and the amount of Egyptian imports of gelatin, as it turns out having a direct correlation between the producer price index and the official rate of the dollar and the amount of Egyptian imports of gelatin. Therefore, did not demonstrate moral form generally agree that result with no increase in the time direction General of moral quantities imported from gelatin, indicating the direction of Egyptian products to use local rather than imported alternative due to the high world prices for gelatin, confirms on a moral import value increased to gelatin without quantities imported during the study period as shown in Table 4. The Eq. 8 in the double logarithmic, Table 6 that the producer price index is one of the most important factors affecting the amount of Egyptian imports of gelatin, as moral set model and the selection coefficient (R^–2) 0.25 indicating that 25% of the changes in the amount of imports of gelatin due to change in variables (x₃) and the rest did not prove psychological factors.

Finally the Table 7 matrix Layne on importing dairy products industry supplies during the study, the table shows the effective impact of the low exchange rate for the Egyptian pound on import each of protein concentrates and emulsifiers due to increased reliance on providing such productive inputs from abroad for the poor quality of local alternative or its rarity sometimes. Results show that the Egyptian pound against the dollar by 1% of Egyptian imports quantity affected protein concentrates emulsifiers 1.9 and 13.3 t/month on the arrangement.

The impact of the Egyptian pound against the dollar on dairy powder is not large, with the Egyptian pound against the dollar went down world prices for dairy powder, thereby reducing the impact of the decline in the pound against the dollar on imported quantities of milk powder during the study period. As regards the quantities imported from gelatin shows a lack of significant impact for the dollar-pound quantities imported, this may be attributed to the Egyptian local alternative plant asylum despite lower quality compared to the importer, with a view to reducing the production costs of the final product of the dairy industry.

This was evidenced by the study Helmy¹³, which shows the chronic and continuous deficit in the Egyptian trade balance, where Egyptian exports often represent 50% or less of the volume of Egyptian imports. The deficit in the Egyptian trade balance in 2015 is about 39 billion pounds, Exports and the increase in the import bill for different reasons, most notably the change in the value of the Egyptian pound against the dollar. This was confirmed by study El Agroudy et al.¹⁵, which revealed the reasons and effects of successive increases in the dollar exchange rate. One of its most important reasons is the desire to eliminate the black market of currency by narrowing the gap between the official rate and the rate of the parallel market and trying to unify the two rates. Some of the most important negative effects of raising dollar exchange rate are the rise in the prices, delaying the implementation of projects, the rise in the rate of inflation, severe losses to tourism companies, lack of medicines and the rise in the prices of building and construction materials, especially those that are imported. Moreover, some of the reasons for raising of the dollar rate are the government’s attention to the economic conference in March, the Central Bank’s last decision to reduce the interest rate on bank deposits to 1%, repaying some of the financial obligations, owed by the state.

In 2016¹, the negative impact of the devaluation of the pound on the foreign trade sector has positive effects on exports and other negative effects on the import bill. The increase in the import bill is one of the main negative effects of the depreciation of the pound in terms of the high cost of importing foreign goods.

In light of all this, it was necessary for the government to take some measures that help improve the investment climate and control the exchange market. This was done by allowing the Egyptian Central Bank to reduce the value of the Egyptian pound against the dollar in order to reduce the difference between the official price and the parallel price in particular stages during. In 2015 and this led to a violent earthquake in the parallel market led to a decrease in the difference between the official and parallel prices and the occurrence of many repercussions in the Egyptian economy, the most important impact of the devaluation of the pound against the dollar on prices and living standards.

CONCLUSION

The quality of products of gelatin is increased by introducing modern technologies through specialized programs. As well as, focus on localization for manufactories specially the protein concentrates used in the food industry. Above all, encourage factories to work for local products imports whenever possible, especially in relation to rely on local gelatin instead of importer. The government should take some measures to improve the investment climate and control the decline in the exchange rate.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTS

This study reveals the seriousness of the devaluation of the pound against the dollar on Egyptian imports and the extent to which the dairy industry in Egypt was affected by the change in the exchange rate. This helps in the development of the productive activity of the food industry in general and the dairy industry in particular. The study will also help the researcher to uncover the most important factors that affect the imports of the dairy supplies in Egypt.