
	Current Research in Tuberculosis
	Year: 2011 \| Volume: 3 \| Issue: 1 \| Page No.: 9-15 DOI: 10.3923/crt.2011.9.15

Modelling the Effect of Anti-retroviral Therapy and Latent Tuberculosis Treatment in Controlling the Spread of Tuberculosis in Nigeria

A.I. Enagi

Abstract: The aim of this study was to predict the effect of anti-retroviral therapy and latent tuberculosis treatment in controlling the spread of tuberculosis in Nigeria. A deterministic compartmental mathematical model for the dynamics of tuberculosis was developed using a modified Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Parameters for slow and fast progression from latently infected tuberculosis to infectious tuberculosis were incorporated into the model. The disease free and endemic equilibrium states were established. The disease free equilibrium state was analysed for stability using a modified version of Bellman and Cooke theorem. The disease free equilibrium state will be stable only when the contraction rate β is low, effective application of anti retroviral drugs thus bringing down γ, high recovery from the latent classes thus increasing ε and ψ else we will have an unstable disease free equilibrium state. The result of this study poses a serious threat to the people of Nigeria since up till now the National Tuberculosis Control Programme in Nigeria is yet to commence Latent Tuberculosis treatment. All contacts to an infections Tuberculosis case should be screened for Latent Tuberculosis and treated if found positive with Isoniazid for a period of six to nine months in order to achieve Tuberculosis free Nigeria. While detection and treatment of Latent Tuberculosis is going on, Administering Antiretroviral drugs to HIV patients co-infected with Tuberculosis will prevent breakdown of immune system which should have lead to progression from Latent Tuberculosis to Infectious Tuberculosis.

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How to cite this article:

A.I. Enagi , 2011. Modelling the Effect of Anti-retroviral Therapy and Latent Tuberculosis Treatment in Controlling the Spread of Tuberculosis in Nigeria. Current Research in Tuberculosis, 3: 9-15.

DOI: 10.3923/crt.2011.9.15

URL: https://scialert.net/abstract/?doi=crt.2011.9.15

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