Journal of Medical Sciences1682-44741812-5727Asian Network for Scientific Information10.3923/jms.2008.715.721MoralesA. JodarL. GonzalezG. SantonjaF.J. VillanuevaR.J. RubioC. 8200888In this study there are two main aims. The first one is to model and
predict the incidence of obesity in the 3-5 years old population in the
coming years in the region of Valencia, Spain. The second aim of this
research is to use the constructed model to analyze the possible strategies
in order to prevent the spread of obesity. At first a logistic regression
statistical analysis of sociocultural variables of children with weight
problems is performed. The result of this logistic regression statistical
analysis suggests that sociocultural factors in the region of Valencia
where the child grows up influence the development of overweight or obesity.
Thus, this result permit to consider the hypothesis that the obesity is
a health concern that depends on sociocultural factors and it is transmitted
by the spread of unhealthy eating habits. In this way the hypothesis permits
to construct a mathematical epidemiological type model in order to forecast
obesity prevalence and to understand the mechanisms of the obesity spread.
Using the constructed epidemiological mathematical model it is predicted
that in the coming years, an increasing trend in the overweight and obese
3-5 years old children in the region of Valencia is predicted if the actual
parameters of the mathematical model stay invariant. In addition, the
different numerical simulations performed with the constructed epidemiological
mathematical model indicate that the most likely successful strategy to
tackle the obesity is through educational campaigns about the risk of
unhealthy eating habits. This study shows how an epidemiological type
mathematical model is an interesting tool to study the obesity transmissions
dynamics in the population. It is useful to predict the prevalence of
the obesity and study strategies to tackle it.]]>Carter, C.M., M. Urbanowicz, R. Hemsley, L. Mantilla and l.S. Strobe et al.,199369564568Christakis, N.A. and J.H. Fowler,2007357370379Dietz, W.H.,1998128411414De-Luís, D.A., R. Aller, O. Izaola and E. Romero,200650193196Fullana, A., P. Momparler, J. Quiles and M.J. Redondo,20042004González-Parra, G., L. Jódar, F.J. Santonja and R.J. Villanueva,20072007Hair, J.F., R.E. Anderson, R.L. Tatham and W.C. Black,19895th Edn.,Jódar, L., A. Morales, F.J. Santonja and R.J. Villanueva,20064-6354357Jódar, L., F.J. Santonja and G. González-Parra,200856679689Krebs, N.F. and M.S. Jacobson,2003112424430Lobstein, T. and M.L. Frelut,20034195200Murray, J.D.,20033rd Edn.,Ravussin, E., B. Burnand, Y. Schutz and E. Jequier,198235566573Serra, L., L. Ribas, J. Aranceta, C. Pérez, P. Saavedra and L. Peña,2003121725732Sobradillo, B., A. Aguirre, U. Aresti, A. Bilbao and C. Fernández-Ramos et al.,20042004Torgan, C.,20022002Wang, Y.,20013011291136Wang, Y. and T. Lobstein,200611125Welsh, J.A., M.E. Cogswell, S. Rogers, H. Rocket, Z. Mei and L.M. Grummer-Strawn,2005115e223e229Whitaker, C., J.A. Wright, M.S. Pepe, K.D. Seidel and W.H. Dietz,1997337869873Heindel, J.J.,200376247249Bautista-Castaño, I., J. Doreste and L. Serra-Majem,200419617622