Journal of Applied Sciences1812-56541812-5662Asian Network for Scientific Information10.3923/jas.2008.4186.4191SoltaniM.A.KarimiA.Bazargan-LariM.R.ShirangiE.122008822Indices usually considered to measure uncertainty of
parameters and optimality of reservoir operation rules are expected value
or variance of the slacks in supplying water demands. However, indices
like reliability range to average ratio of supplied water as well as the
average ratio of allowed river flow to released water for planning horizon
will lead to a better description of uncertainty measurement. Considering
this index within the objective function will lead to a problem with discrete
non-linear objective function that minimizing it will show a better improvement
in reservoir operation planning which is the least sensitive to the uncertainty
of inflows. In this research, this problem is formulated as optimized-simulation,
while considering stochasticity of inflows by scenarios, which is optimized
by differential evolutionary algorithm, combined with scenario optimization.
Inflow scenarios show the uncertainty band of inputs which is narrowed
in outputs, like, demand supplying through optimal reservoir operation
planning and assessed by the coefficient of variation index defined above.
Application of this problem formulation and solution in a real world case
Zayandehrud Dam in Isfahan, Iran, shows the robustness and reliability
of the operation rules in comparison with actual operation within the
years 1975 to 1994.]]>Coine, D., M. Dorigo and F. Glover,1999Deb, K.,2001Dembo, R.S.,1991Hota, P.K., R. Chakrabarti and P.K. Chattopadhyay,1999Karamouz, M., N. Khodatalab, S. Araghi-Nejad and R. Kerachian,2002Labadie, J.W., D.G. Fontane, G.Q. Tabios and N.F. Chou,1987Shapiro, A.,2007