INTRODUCTION
Index is a tool to measure and comparison the phenomenon’s which have clear
essence and properties. Therefore according to the index, created changes in
determined variables can be studies during the period (Ghafari,
2004). Shares price index is using extensively in the society, according
to the views of the investors for investing of special shares and also as one
economical index from on the enormous economics. By the using feature, index
is a quantitative instrument that is a representative of some homogenous variables.
Today’s scholarship is very important tools at investment market and has important
rule on economic growing and by pricing, decreasing the risk, providing the
source for economic improvement (Pakdin, 2008). Stock
exchange is as a comprehensive and formal capital market which selling and buying
the stocks of companies and governmental loan document or private institutes,
that is done under some special rules. Special specification of the stock, scholarship
is the center of collecting the reserved money and cash of private institutes,
in order to providing financial for the long time project. In the another way
there is a formal reference that on those who are looking for the safe place
to invest in company or buying government loan document and have determined
and guarantee profit (Khodabakhsh, 2004). How to use the
capital is important problem in per society, in an economic by the government
sovereignty and huge investment appearance without correct management which
is a guarantee for keeping the capital and increasing the capital sharing, but
in economic according to the market, investment in per level appearance by quality
management. Such managements are following capital profit and apply increasing.
In market economic, governmental institutes tried to be private, while other
institutes can make advantage. The main purpose of making private institutes
is to increase the management of country sources by increasing the government
rule and increasing rule private parts rule. Making huge market investment is
another purpose of the creating the private institutes.
This action is done in Iran, first by presenting Tehran stock and if
it isn’t accepted, by governmental companies. Scholarship is the best
way to attract the people’s stopped and erratic cash, those who can’t
use their cash in the best way. They will be encouraged to save more money
and spend little, indeed of their extent company in the units as an owner
and have profit in the advantages of investment in the company and by
attracting this cash and guiding it into the economic manufacturer and
useful activity which will cause to improve the anti inflation purposes.
Also, scholarship is one of the instruments which is used to changing
the companies with no profit (whether governmental or private) into the
company with high profit.
Therefore studying the effective variables on stocks price changing
at valuable documents scholarship has high importance which is because
of that homogenous variable with stock natural way and cause to decrease
the price indicator and stock stagnancy.
Stock is a French word which as all other related words, is inserted
in Farsi (Persian) culture and in French literature it mean’s wallet.
But today this magic word has more important concept than wallet and is
a measure and main index in our country’s economic. Its importance is
critical by some views and by studying each of them we can understand
its rule on economic, private institutes and sometimes government need
private institutes for the needed capital on their project and it is the
reason for buying this share. When the sharing happened, a document is
given to the stock holder which is named share. Therefore according to
the changing in stick price and proper evaluation, the organization of
stock exchange is made and according to the offer and demand, the companies’
acceptable stock are priced and transacted.
This is important because little invests to be inclined on big actions
and the money in private part is guided toward the individual and national
profits. Index scholar is as temperature which shows the economics’ situation
of the capital market. Shares’ price decreasing shows the economic stagnancy
and its increasing shows economic improvement in America and its first
using of shares happened at 1884. This indicator in railroad in dusty
was taken by average 11. Totally shares price indicator in all capital
market of the world is as one of the most important measurement for the
action of stock exchange and attract importance and attention. Perhaps
the most important reason for this attention is that mentioned index are
governed by shares movement of all companies or special groups of existed
companies and therefore it makes possible to study the way and measure
of valuable movement in shares market.
Extending the theories and capital inventions at these lately decades was according
to the general movement of the market and increasing the calculation and study
of these index. Main and important using of index calculation of all market’s
output or specified variables of market in a special time and output using which
is calculated, is as a basis for judgment about deferent portfolio. The main
hypothesis on the action of portfolio is that investors are able to have more
output in comparison to the market and random selection of the most extended
shares or loan documents of the all market. Therefore a manager by better action
should be better than the market. Therefore shares index or loan documents can
be a criterion for judgment about the action of investment managers. Also some
kind of portfolio risks can be compared on the basis of risky index. Indicators
are also for improvement and creating special portfolio for the most of the
manager’s investment is getting more output than market output in long time
and it is permanently problem. At this way, investment in portfolio is one simple
way which is compatible by portfolio market. This idea comes to creating the
index boxes which aims to follow the market index action during the time; the
price of shares shows the economic situation of company. Therefore market index
shows the activity and situation of whole economy. Analyzers of the valuable
documents, portfolio managers and the other economy in chargers, use the market
index to study those variables which have effect on all the prices of the charges.
Technological analyzers are those who likes indicator and believe that historical
charges of prices can be used to predict the lately movement. According to the
portfolio hypothesis and capital behavior it’s described risk in relation to
the capital that have risk and it is just a systematic risk. This risk describes
the price of the purpose output with the output of the relationship market portfolio.
Therefore it is necessary, when the systematic risk of a risky in relation with
capital and, its output in index of the comprehensive market is calculated.
Oscillation of shares price in the entire world is routine, not just normal,
because the shares price and others kind o valuable documents shows all internal
and external effective variables, therefore when special changing come into
existence in effective variables, its reflection will be observed on shares
price (Hamedian, 2000).
This is a necessity which guides different research. There is a meaningful
relationship between the price of share and it is divided output. Also Jamshidi
(1998) in a research got the liner relationship between outcome and shares
price in the market of Tehran stock exchange. Hamedian (2000)
concluded that psychic and political variables have high importance on decision
making by the stockholders at Tehran stock. The price of shares is affected
by the foreign currency price and inflation rate. Shares distribution has more
effect on share price and long time loan has more effect than bank loan on the
shares output. Shares’ changing in the past has effect on investors’ decision
on buying the shares. The big shock has effect on shares price. Bordman
and Claude (2000) find out that the size of the company has negative effect
on shares price action; also different period has positive effect on share price.
Bartram (2007) concludes that changing of risk rate on
shares price and cash is similar. Gammill and James (1988)
concluded that most of the countries try to use of the Arbitrage opportunities.
Bordman and Claude (2000) study the effect of different variables on the
shares price and approved its effect on the depended variable. Therefore, these
kind of the company size, golden shares and kind of the industry and period
are different which at recent research we approved them as internal variables.
Bihanot study the effect of government intrusion of shares price index and approved
its affection. Therefore he insists on one side of the political- governmental
variables. Olgun and Ozdemir (2007) concluded that S
and P 500 permanently has effect on the shares price. Brown
and Yucel (2002) found out the relationship between oil price and economic
variables can be asymmetrical. Keane and Prasad (1996)
found that increasing of oil price cause to decreasing the employment in short
time and increasing the employment in long time. Ewing and
Thompson (2007) get that the price of oil cause to the consumer price.
Baharumshah et al. (2007) found that long term. Income hasn’t meaningful
elasticity as regards to the shares price on the demand of market’s money. Sadorsky
and Henriques (2007) find out the effect of the shares at technology companies
has more effect on the price of the shares of energy (not oil) than the shock
of the price oil.
Quah and Srinivasan (1999) knows five effective variables
on the shares price as risk, growing, cash, momentum and output. Chang
et al. (2008) create a model of shares in the basis of fuzzy and
using the important and effective variable by the 97.6% accuracy, as its pattern
is accepted by the Taiwan electronic companies in Taiwan stock. Starks
and Wei (2004) concluded that disclosure of the most of the foreign currency
may cause to financial problem in growing opportunities. Bartram
(2007) studies the effect of the companies cash and shares price on the
changing on foreign currency and concluded that the effect of foreign currency
is as the cash. Hammoudeh and Choi (2006) studies in
the long time, the effect of Persian golf market shock -which was the result
of America oil market- and effect of S and P 500 and treasure documents. Then
they concluded that the treasure price has directly influence on market. Jones
and Kaul (1996) studies the effect of oil price shocks on equity prices
in Japan, America, Canada and Britain concluded that just in oil price stock,
America and Canada has effect on real money is completely clear. Nandha
and Hammoudeh (2007) study this systematic risk and oil price variable between
15 countries in the Pacific Ocean and concluded that the effective variable
on oil price has more changes in comparison to the market systematic risk of
the capital on target country. Randall and Lei (2007)
gets in research, price before the big days can be related with those days actions
as 1st January. Peter and Zhang (2007) found in their study, the accountant
predict share price movements. Sőhnke (2007) study the share price and cash
of the company and their influence on foreign currency and concluded factories
whose share price is affected during the time less and also effect of the risk
rate shares price and cash is as some as that one according to the economic
factors. The economical variables on TIPIX and found the effect of environmental
variables in success and fail. On companies or institutes and share price is
more important variable than management in Iran. At this research economic,
variables as one of the external variables are confirmed. Henis and Allison
(1996) got in their study that companies shares price hasn’t effect at shares
price changing and shares price changes and shares price of one company and
it is depended on the shares price of a company and the other related changes
and, can be said they are independent of the shares price of other companies.
Therefore to the mentioned subjects describe the importance and rule
of the stock exchange to improve the country economic situation. In this
research, internal effective variables on the stock changes price index
are studied. Therefore the purpose of the mentioned research is to study
and define local models of internal effective variables stock price index
at Tehran stock exchange by Fuzzy approach in a conceptual, therefore
these research tried to answer this questions, what is the internal effective
variables of local model on shares price index at Tehran stock exchange
by Fuzzy approach?
MATERIALS AND METHODS
About the research way there are different idea and views (Zohori,
1999). According to this subject and four theoretical views and methods,
extending and improving the existing theory, comparing the different theoretical
views, study the special phenomenon by using the different theoretical views
and finally study the repetitive and well-document (this research was done before)
in anew station and conditions (Feldman, 2004), this
research is prescriptive is at fourth group.
Statistical population with 500 people at this research includes experts
who are aquatinted to stock exchange and the effective variable on stock
price and help the researcher to collection the data.
In order to sampling at behavioral science, there are some ways such as simple
random sampling, organized random sampling. Taxonomic sampling, racemose sampling
is stages sampling (Azar and Momeni, 2000).
To choose statistical sampling at this research we use accessible sampling
that the question of distributed letter is 170 and received is 150.
Its area is about stock exchange, especially about price index and its
places that makes Tehran stock exchange.
There are four variables according to their rule in answering the question
or hypothesis test that includes financial, marketing, structural and
management are related to internal arbitrator variable and dependent variable
price index.
In order to critically evaluating and validity the used factors (Hult
and Ferrel, 1997) in questionnaire, there is some study and testes on factors
by the experts and professors, them after adjusting, final questionnaire will
be used.
Collection data way is necessary at this research and it is as, the questionnaire
is made, it is given at first reference and the statistical society are
given necessary explanation, then at second reference they gather the
information. After collection them, all of them are encoding, then inter
to the FuzzyTech and SPSS software’s, so they are arranged and the local
model is created.
There are different ways to validating the measurement tools that one of them
is asking the question of experts (Bazargan et al.,
1998; Sarokhani, 2003). These question is valuable
because the parts of the measurable variables are taken from research literature
and in other word the related experts are purchase in capital stock. Indeed
on questionnaire planning, it is given to the experts and professors on a forward
testing, then after receiving their reforming views, final questionnaire planning
it will be used for collection information.
In order to determining the validity of the measurement tool, there are different
and various ways that one of them is examination of the internal harmony (Conca
et al., 2004). Internal harmony of the measurement tool can be measured
by Cronbach alpha index (Cronbach, 1951). This is the
way which is used in most of the research (Peterson, 1994).
However, the minimum and acceptable measurement should be 0.7 but 0.6 or till
0.55 is acceptable too (Van de ven and Ferry, 1979; Nunnally,
1978). In recent research the Cronbach alpha index is 0.86, therefore its
durability is confirmed.
Collection date
Fuzzy modeling: In fuzzy modeling there are different ways
about knowing their kinds which can be mentioned as two following:
Fuzzy model parameter, while data are classic
Classic model parameter, while data are fuzzy:
| • |
Classic data dependent variable and independent data
are classic |
| • |
Fuzzy data dependent variable and independent data are classic |
| • |
Fuzzy data dependent variable and independent data are fuzzy |
Tests of fuzzy hypothesis: Fuzzy hypothesis tests can be divided
in to four parts:
| • |
Usual hypothesis and observations are fuzzy |
H0: μ = μ0
H1: μ ≠ μ0 |
| • |
Usual hypothesis and observations are usual but used dependencies
are fuzzy |
| • |
Fuzzy hypothesis, but observations are usual |
|
| • |
Fuzzy hypothesis, but observations are fuzzy too |
|
Definitions
Fuzzy: Most of the time gathered information for some reason
is not very exactly (crisp) and is along with lack of certainty, that
can be modeling as fuzzy model.
| • |
Membership dependency: Is a dependency which describe
X variable at [0, 1]: |
| μ (x): x → [0, 1] |
| • |
Normal fuzzy No.: 
is told as normal fuzzy No. which its membership dependency is equally
to one in accordance to some points |
| • |
Fuzzy No.: A fuzzy No.
is a fuzzy convex subset of the real line satisfying the following
conditions: |
is piecewise continuous
is normalized, that is, there exists m ε 
with
,
where, m is called the mean value of .
Triangular fuzzy No. :
A triangular fuzzy No.
can be defined by a triplet (a1, a2, a3).
Its conceptual schema and mathematical form are shown by Eq.
1:
A triangular fuzzy No.
in the universe of discourse X that conforms to this definition has been
shown in Fig. 1.
Trapezoidal fuzzy No. :
A trapezoidal fuzzy No.
can be defined by quadruplet (a1, a2, a3,
a4). Its conceptual schema and mathematical form are shown
by Eq. 2:
|
| Fig. 1: |
A triangular fuzzy No. |
|
| Fig. 2: |
A trapezoidal fuzzy No. |
A trapezoidal fuzzy No.
in the universe of discourse X that conforms to this definition has been
shown in Fig. 2.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Demographic given data: Table 1 show 150 statistical
simple demographic given data of expert in stock exchange in research
as whether was in questioner. Totally we can find male gender that were
young and have 1-5 years experience group, so must of them have MA and
Ph.D education.
In order to introduce effective variable as effective one on the shares
price at Tehran stock exchange, fuzzy hypothesis was used special question
what is the local model of effective variable on price index at Tehran
stock exchange by fuzzy approach?
At first fuzzy tools at linguistic variable were determined (Fig.
3). Then the variable were described at fuzzy sets that are shown in Fig.
4.
According to the independent linguistic variables, mediator and dependent,
the number of the studying hypothesis is equal to N" that N is count division
in fuzzy tools for linguistic variables and n is No. of the variables.
|
| Fig. 3: |
Research variable fuzzy tools |
|
| Fig. 4: |
Presenting high-medium and low fuzzy set at linguistic
variables |
| Table 1: |
Prescriptive and statistical data of statistical patterns
on prescriptive demographics |
 |
| Table 2: |
Dependent and mediator and independent linguistic variables
information |
 |
| Table 3: |
Hypothesis and their confirmation |
 |
| Table 4: |
Fuzzy inference |
 |
These hypotheses and the No. of the upper affected are presented at Table
2 to emphasize on hypothesis.
It necessary to mention that involved variables are shown with summarizing
sign, Therefore, from the left it’s toward dependent, mediator and dependent
variable.
Also alphabet ABC shows high. Medium (average), low properties. According
to the most of the columns collection it can be understand that, its accuracy
is more than the other.
In order to be sure of the fuzzy hypothesis testing at Table
3, we use fuzzy inference, which come follow as summary (Table
4).
| Table 5: |
Fuzzy evaluation of price index |
 |
By fuzzy concluding, we evaluate price index that for every one of the
repliers and the maximum of the accuracy of per rules in fuzzy tools of
research variables in relation with independent variable (Table
5).
After fuzzy evaluation and normalize them considering the maximum point
of the membership obedient is according to the natural movement to determine
the pattern’s value.
|
| Fig. 5: |
Pattern’s value for linguistics’ variables |
| Table 6: |
Absolute worth of the shares price index |
 |
| Table 7: |
Optimum value of linguistic variable |
 |
By last conclusion the absolute worth’s of the research it is shown that
research variables have the best condition to describe the local model
(Fig. 5) and it is shown in Table 6.
Therefore according to what ever is said research in local model is providing
at Fig. 6.
In other word between internal variables, management, marketing and structural
variables have highest influence after each other. Also by comparison
of the values of internal valuable (Table 7). It is
worth able to mention that current research is done by FuzzyTech v.5.61
software.
According to whatever is said, three dimensional charts of research are
shown in Fig. 7.
According to this research as it was explain completely, the result of some
of these researches is compare with this research. Bordman
and Claude (2000) studied different effective variable at index price and
confirmed it is effect on dependent variable, such as size of company, golden
shares, kind of industry and different period. Therefore understand that those
variables have effect on shares price of stock exchange. While at this research
these factors are confirmed in a structure of variable frame work and this model
is more comprehensive than (Bordman and Claude, 2000)
found management variables are those effected on index price stock. Amirmozafari
(2006) in her dissertation concluded, management fame is affected on index
price stock. Also Jamshidi (1998) got a linear relation
between the out put of per share and share price at Tehran stock exchange. The
effect of shares distribution is more on share price according to the long term
loan. Also capital in creasing has more effect in comparison to bank borrowing.
Last variable on price influence on investors to buy the shares and these finding
are in conformity with capital variable of this study.
By the mentioned this study the most important internal variable which
has influence on shares price of the accepted company at Tehran stock
exchange is in relation to management variables, therefore to make the
stock exchange powerful and increasing the company value, it’s suggested
to the stock holders that be careful about choosing the board of directors
in a annually meeting.
|
|
| Fig. 7: |
Three dimensional presentations of variables at first
optimum, (a) Financial-marketing, (b) Managerial-marketing, (c) Managerial-structure,
(d) Financial-structure, (e) Marketing-structure and (f) Financial-structure
index price |
However , these variables such as: output per share,
price in comparison to output, historical movement of shares, measure
of assets, output of asset, rate of the capital price, capital changing,
financial releasing, golden shares, revealing ... that have effect on
shares price index at stock exchange, therefore it is suggested to those
companies manager who are accepted in stock to be care about shares price
index, till can help the company growing at stock and improving country
economy. Because financial freedom is on of the effective variables, it’s
advised to the stock managers in order to increasing the financial market
of country try to be in concordance with other international market.
According to the presented documents in this study passage these subjects
are as suggesting to current research in relation to this study:
| • |
Study the local model of effective variable on share
price index by wing the management technique |
| • |
Identify and ordering the effective variable in stock exchange stagnation |
| • |
Clarification of the structural model of effective variable on shares
price index at Tehran stock exchange |
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