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Articles by W. G. Gao
Total Records ( 2 ) for W. G. Gao
  W. G. Gao , Q. Qiao , J. Pitkaniemi , S. Wild , D. Magliano , J. Shaw , S. Soderberg , P. Zimmet , P. Chitson , S. Knowlessur , G. Alberti and J. Tuomilehto
  Aims To develope risk prediction models of future diabetes in Mauritian Indians. MethodsThree thousand and ninety-four Mauritian Indians (1141 men, aged 20–65 years) without diabetes in 1987 or 1992 were followed up to 1992 or 1998. Subjects underwent repeated oral glucose tolerance tests and diabetes was diagnosed according to 2006 World Health Organization/International Diabetes Federation criteria. Cox regression models for interval censored data were performed using data from 1544 randomly selected participants. Predicted probabilities for diabetes were calculated and validated in the remaining 1550 subjects. ResultsOver 11 years of follow-up, there were 511 cases of diabetes. Among variables tested, family history of diabetes, obesity (body mass index, waist circumference) and glucose were significant predictors of diabetes. Predicted probabilities derived from a simple model fitted with sex, family history of diabetes and obesity ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AROC) of predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.56–0.68) in men and 0.64 (0.59–0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.72 (0.71–0.74) and 0.47 (0.45–0.49) in men and 0.77 (0.75–0.78) and 0.50 (0.48–0.52) in women, respectively. Addition of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) to the model improved the prediction slightly [AROC curve 0.70 (0.65–0.76) in men, 0.71 (0.67–0.76) in women]. ConclusionsA diabetes prediction model based on obesity and family history yielded moderate discrimination in Mauritian Indians, which was slightly inferior to the model with the FPG but may be useful in low-income countries to promote identification of people at high risk of diabetes.
  W. G. Gao , Y. H. Dong , Z. C. Pang , H. R. Nan , L. Zhang , S. J. Wang , J. Ren , F. Ning and Q. Qiao
  Aims: To determine the secular trend of prevalence of Type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in a Chinese population from 2001 to 2006.
Methods: Two consecutive population-based surveys for diabetes were conducted in a randomly selected population aged 35–74 years and living in Qingdao, China in 2001–2002 (n = 10854) and 2006 (n = 4416). All participants underwent standardized 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs), along with fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) tests in 2006. One urban community underwent OGTTs directly in 2002 (n = 1815), while a two-step screening strategy using FCG as a first-line screening test followed by OGTTs was used in 9039 individuals in 2001. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined according to the 2006 World Health Organization/International Diabetes Federation criteria.
Results: Based on the results of direct OGTTs, the age-standardized prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in urban areas was 12.2 and 15.4% in 2002, whereas the prevalences were 18.8 and 28.7% in urban areas and 14.1 and 20.2% in rural areas in 2006 (P < 0.001, in urban areas). Using the two-step screening strategy, the prevalence of diabetes in 2001 was 10.1% in urban and 7.7% in rural areas and 13.8% in urban and 12.2% in rural areas in 2006 (P < 0.001). Based on the data of the 2006 survey, the two-step screening strategy missed 30.2% of diabetes cases when compared with the number defined by the direct OGTT approach.
Conclusions: Qingdao has experienced a marked increase in the prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in the past 5 years. Intervention to prevent a further increase in the prevalence of diabetes is urgently required.
 
 
 
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