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Articles by W. B Kannel
Total Records ( 3 ) for W. B Kannel
  R. B Schnabel , T Aspelund , G Li , L. M Sullivan , A Suchy Dicey , T. B Harris , M. J Pencina , R. B D'Agostino , D Levy , W. B Kannel , T. J Wang , R. A Kronmal , P. A Wolf , G. L Burke , L. J Launer , R. S Vasan , B. M Psaty , E. J Benjamin , V Gudnason and S. R. Heckbert
 

Background  We sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.

Methods  We evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.

Results  We found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0% (AGES) and 63.6% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.

Conclusions  Risk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64% of risk.

  R. S Velagaleti , J Massaro , R. S Vasan , S. J Robins , W. B Kannel and D. Levy
 

Background— The relations of lipid concentrations to heart failure (HF) risk have not been elucidated comprehensively.

Methods and Results— In 6860 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age, 44 years; 54% women) free of baseline coronary heart disease, we related high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and non-HDL-C to HF incidence during long-term follow-up, adjusting for clinical covariates and myocardial infarction at baseline and updating these at follow-up examinations. We evaluated dyslipidemia-specific population burden of HF by calculating population attributable risks. During follow-up (mean of 26 years), 680 participants (49% women) developed HF. Unadjusted HF incidence in the low (<160 mg/dL) versus high (≥190 mg/dL) non-HDL-C groups was 7.9% and 13.8%, respectively, whereas incidence in the high (≥55 [men], ≥65 [women] mg/dL) versus low (<40 [men], <50 [women] mg/dL) HDL-C groups was 6.1% and 12.8%, respectively. In multivariable models, baseline non-HDL-C and HDL-C, modeled as continuous measures, carried HF hazards (confidence intervals) of 1.19 (1.11 to 1.27) and 0.82 (0.75 to 0.90), respectively, per SD increment. In models updating lipid concentrations every 8 years, the corresponding hazards (confidence intervals) were 1.23 (1.16 to 1.31) and 0.77 (0.70 to 0.85). Participants with high baseline non-HDL-C and those with low HDL-C experienced a 29% and 40% higher HF risk, respectively, compared with those in the desirable categories; the population attributable risks for high non-HDL-C and low HDL-C were 7.5% and 15%, respectively. Hazards associated with non-HDL-C and HDL-C remained statistically significant after additional adjustment for interim myocardial infarction.

Conclusions— Dyslipidemia carries HF risk independent of its association with myocardial infarction, suggesting that lipid modification may be a means for reducing HF risk.

 
 
 
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