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Articles by Suhartono
Total Records ( 3 ) for Suhartono
  Suhartono , B.S.S. Ulama and A.J. Endharta
  Problem statement: The aim of this research was to study further some latest progress of wavelet transform for time series forecasting, particularly about Neural Networks Multiscale Autoregressive (NN-MAR). Approach: There were three main issues that be considered further in this research. The first was some properties of scale and wavelet coefficients from Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) decomposition, particularly at seasonal time series data. The second focused on the development of model building procedures of NN-MAR based on the properties of scale and wavelet coefficients. Then, the third was empirical study about the implementation of the proposed procedure and comparison study about the forecast accuracy of NN-MAR to other forecasting models. Results: The results showed that MODWT at seasonal time series data also has seasonal pattern for scale coefficient, whereas the wavelet coefficients are stationer. The result of model building procedure development yielded a new proposed procedure of NN-MAR model for seasonal time series forecasting. In general, this procedure accommodated input lags of scale and wavelet coefficients and other additional seasonal lags. In addition, the result showed that the proposed procedure works well for determining the best NN-MAR model for seasonal time series forecasting. Conclusion: The comparison study of forecast accuracy showed that the NN-MAR model yields better forecast than MAR and ARIMA models.
  This study described Xlet applications for TOEFL preparation test Xlet applications are Java applets that were developed for the IDTV environment. With the digital television, t-Learning arises as an opportunity to facilitate learning for a large number of people spread all over the country who arenot covered by traditional e-Learning. This study starts with a study of the technologies involved in the development of such systems as well as an analysis of the necessary elements for proper use of DTV educational applications and the importance of this new media in TOEFL preparation test. The main objectives of this research to present the necessary elements to develop interactive TOEFL preparation test for digital television. Researcher have focused on methodologies to use digital television as an efficient medium to convey timely and useful TOEFL preparation test to the public, one of the purpose of using streamed media API is to present broadcasting content (e.g., audio material of listening) on digital television screen.
  Z. Ismail , Suhartono , A. Yahaya and R. Efendi
  Problem statement: It is common in time series data with extreme change in its mean caused by an intervention which comes from external and/or internal factors. This extreme change in mean is known as regime change or structural change. Problems of external factor intervention such as the effect of the Arab oil embargo to consumption level of electricity in United States. The issue of interest here is on the impact of terrorist Bali’s bomb to tourism industry in Indonesia. Approach: A theoretical and empirical studies on the intervention model, particularly pulse function of intervention is carried out focusing on the differential statistics that can be used to determine the order of intervention model. A case study of the first Bali bomb that occurred on October 12th, 2002 is an intervention of external factor that has affected the occupancy level of five star hotels in Bali. Results: The results of this theoretical study were applied to construct a model procedure of intervention model. The empirical study showed that intervention model is used to describe and explain the quantity and the length of the first Bali bomb effect towards the occupancy level of five star hotels in Bali. It shows a decreasing trend in tourist arrival in Bali, Indonesia. Conclusion: This study was focused on the derivation of some effect shapes, i.e., temporary, gradually or permanent on the arrival of tourist into Bali. A new model building procedure with three main iterative steps for determining an intervention model was used for data with extreme change in mean. The results from this theoretical study will give an opportunity for further research related to time series model that contains regime change, caused by intervention of pulse function and/or step function.
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