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Hepatitis B infection long term prognosis is good in the absence of liver cirrhosis. However, the
risk of liver cirrhosis developing in chronic Hepatitis B surface antigen positive varies from 1-5/100
patients per year. This study aimed at developing a novel prognostic scoring system to predict liver cirrhosis
in chronic Hepatitis B patients. A total of 82 chronic Hepatitis B patients were recruited retrospectively in a
cohort study and their liver Biochemistry, Hepatitis B viral DNA level, viral serology, quantitative Hepatitis
B e Antigen (qHBeAg) and development of liver cirrhosis were assessed. The data were included in a
multivariate logistic regression analysis based on which this prognostic scoring system was established. A
simple scoring system composed of virological and biochemical laboratory parameter was developed to predict
liver cirrhosis in chronic Hepatitis B patients. This prognostic score is accurate and reproducible. The
prognostic score ranges between 5 and 15. Patients prognostic score of 5 indicates low risk, 10 high risk and
15 very high risk of developing cirrhosis. In conclusion, this study has showed a promising scoring system that
can be use in predicting the risk of developing liver cirrhosis in chronic Hepatitis B patients.
