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Articles by R. Waldeyer
Total Records ( 2 ) for R. Waldeyer
  R. Waldeyer , R. Brinks , W. Rathmann , G. Giani and A. Icks
 

Aim

To model the future costs of Type 2 diabetes in Germany, taking into account demographic changes, disease dynamics and undiagnosed cases.

Methods

Using a time-discrete Markov model, the prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed/undiagnosed) between 2010 and 2040 was estimated and linked with cost weights. Demographic, epidemiological and economic scenarios were modelled. Inputs to the model included the official population forecasts, prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, proportions of undiagnosed cases, health expenditure and cost ratios of an individual with (diagnosed/undiagnosed) diabetes to an individual without diabetes. The outcomes were the case numbers and associated annual direct medical excess costs of Type 2 diabetes from a societal perspective in 2010€.

Results

In the base case, the case numbers of diabetes will grow from 5 million (2.8 million diagnosed) in 2010 to a maximum of 7.9 million (4.6 million diagnosed) in 2037. From 2010 to 2040, the prevalence rate amonf individuals ≥40 years old will increase from 10.5 to 16.3%. The annual costs of diabetes will increase by 79% from €11.8 billion in 2010 to €21.1 billion in 2040 (€9.5 billion to €17.6 billion for diagnosed cases).

Conclusions

The projected increase in costs will be attributable to demographic changes and disease dynamics, and will be enhanced by higher per capita costs with advancing age. Better epidemiological and economic data regarding diabetes care in Germany would improve the forecasting accuracy. The method used in the present study can anticipate the effects of alternative policy scenarios and can easily be adapted to other chronic diseases.

  A. Icks , H. Claessen , K. Strassburger , R. Waldeyer , N. Chernyak , F. Julich , W. Rathmann , B. Thorand , C. Meisinger , C. Huth , I.-M. Rückert , M. Schunk , G. Giani and R. Holle
 

Aims

Patient time costs have been described to be substantial; however, data are highly limited. We estimated patient time costs attributable to outpatient and inpatient care in study participants with diagnosed diabetes, previously undetected diabetes, impaired glucose regulation and normal glucose tolerance.

Methods

Using data of the population-based KORA S4 study (55-74 years, random sample of n = 350), we identified participants' stage of glucose tolerance by oral glucose tolerance test. To estimate mean patient time costs per year (crude and standardized with respect to age and sex), we used data regarding time spent with ambulatory visits including travel and waiting time and with hospital stays (time valued at a 2011 net wage rate of €20.63/h). The observation period was 24 weeks and data were extrapolated to 1 year.

Results

Eighty-nine to 97% of participants in the four groups (diagnosed diabetes, undetected diabetes, impaired glucose regulation and normal glucose tolerance.) had at least one physician contact and 4-14% at least one hospital admission during the observation period. Patient time [h/year (95% CI)] was 102.0 (33.7-254.8), 53.8 (15.0-236.7), 59.3 (25.1-146.8) and 28.6 (21.1-43.7), respectively. Age-sex standardized patient time costs per year (95% CI) were €2447.1 (804.5-6143.6), €880.4 (259.1-3606.7), €1151.6 (454.6-2957.6) and €589.2 (435.8-904.8).

Conclusions

Patient time costs were substantial-even higher than medication costs in the same study population. They are higher in participants with diagnosed diabetes, but also in those with undetected diabetes and impaired glucose regulation compared with those with normal glucose tolerance. Research is needed in larger populations to receive more precise and certain estimates that can be used in health economic evaluation.

 
 
 
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