

Articles
by
Joseph Y.T. Mugisha 
Total Records (
4 ) for
Joseph Y.T. Mugisha 





Flugentius Baryarama
,
Joseph Y.T. Mugisha
and
Livingstone S. Luboobi


An HIV/AIDS model is formulated with variable force of infection for the adult population. Its equations are reduced to a prevalence equation that is a nonlogistic equation whose explicit solution is derived. The implications of applying the solution to the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are discussed with respect to the positive boundedness of the coefficients. Prevalence projections are presented for various initial prevalences and behavior change parameters. The main finding is that in settings with high recruitment rates, the HIV epidemic reaches peak prevalence (and thereafter start declining) when the rate of new infections is still higher than the rate of removal of those infected with HIV. 




Joseph Y.T. Mugisha


A mathematical model is formulated to study the effect of treatment of HIV/AIDS patients on the spread of the epidemic in a twoage groupâ€™s population. The model assumes the sexual transmission mode. A proportion δ, of the adult HIV/AIDS infectives is assumed to be receiving treatment. The analysis of the model shows that treatment that is not accompanied by a positive change in social behaviour will increase the number of both child and adult infective in the population. And if treatment is accompanied by a change in social behaviour the epidemic could be eventually contained. The basic reproductive numbers in the case of treatment with no behavioral change and in the case treatment with behavioral change are used to make conclusions on the need to balance treatment with prevention. 





Flugentius Baryarama
,
Livingstone S. Luboobi
and
Joseph Y.T. Mugisha


An HIV/AIDS model incorporating complacency for the adult population
is formulated. Complacency is assumed a function of the number of AIDS cases
in a community with an inverse relation. A method to find the equilibrium state
of the model is given by proving a stated theorem. An example to illustrate
the application of the theorem is also given. Model analysis and simulations
show that complacency resulting from dependence of HIV transmission on the number
of AIDS cases in a community leads to damped periodic oscillations in the number
of infective with oscillations more marked at lower rates of progression to
AIDS. The implications of these results to public health with respect to monitoring
the HIV/AIDS epidemic and widespread use of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs is discussed. 




Richard O. Simwa
and
Joseph Y.T. Mugisha


The number of CD4 white blood cells has been established as an important
clinical marker of disease progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
(AIDS) for persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The number
of CD4 cells per unit volume is expected to decrease with time since infection
by the virus. However on introduction of treatment interventions, the process
is expected to reverse with the counts increasing to return to the normal level.
In this study we deduce that the count per unit volume of blood of an HIV/AIDS
patient has a linear relationship with the time since infection during the short
period of time immediately treatment usage begins. We show one application of
the model in treatment selection strategy. 





