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Articles by J Shepherd
Total Records ( 3 ) for J Shepherd
  P. M Ridker , F. A.H Fonseca , J Genest , A. M Gotto , J. J.P Kastelein , W Koenig , P Libby , A. J Lorenzatti , B. G Nordestgaard , J Shepherd , J. T Willerson , R. J Glynn and for the JUPITER Study Group

Background— As recently demonstrated, random allocation to rosuvastatin results in large relative risk reductions for first cardiovascular events among apparently healthy men and women with low levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol but elevated levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. However, whether the absolute risk reduction among such individuals justifies wide application of statin therapy in primary prevention is a controversial issue with broad policy and public health implications.

Methods and Results— Absolute risk reductions and consequent number needed to treat (NNT) values were calculated across a range of end points, timeframes, and subgroups using data from Justification for the Use of statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER), a randomized evaluation of rosuvastatin 20 mg versus placebo conducted among 17 802 apparently healthy men and women with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <130 mg/dL and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2 mg/L. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to address the potential impact that alternative statin regimens might have on a similar primary prevention population. For the end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization, or death, the 5-year NNT within JUPITER was 20 (95% CI, 14 to 34). All subgroups had 5-year NNT values for this end point below 50; as examples, 5-year NNT values were 17 for men and 31 for women, 21 for whites and 19 for nonwhites, 18 for those with body mass index ≤25 kg/m2 and 21 for those with body mass index greater than 25 kg/m2, 9 and 26 for those with and without a family history of coronary disease, 19 and 22 for those with and without metabolic syndrome, and 14 and 37 for those with estimated Framingham risks greater or less than 10%. For the net vascular benefit end point that additionally included venous thromboembolism, the 5-year NNT was 18 (95% CI, 13 to 29). For the restricted "hard" end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death, the 5-year NNT was 29 (95% CI, 19 to 56). In sensitivity analyses addressing the theoretical utility of alternative agents, 5-year NNT values of 38 and 57 were estimated for statin regimens that deliver 75% and 50% of the relative benefit observed in JUPITER, respectively. All of these calculations compare favorably to 5-year NNT values previously reported in primary prevention for the use of statins among hyperlipidemic men (5-year NNT, 40 to 70), for antihypertensive therapy (5-year NNT, 80 to 160), or for aspirin (5-year NNT, >300).

Conclusions— Absolute risk reductions and consequent NNT values associated with statin therapy among those with elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol are comparable if not superior to published NNT values for several widely accepted interventions for primary cardiovascular prevention, including the use of statin therapy among those with overt hyperlipidemia.

Clinical Trial Registration— Identifier NCT00239681.

  T Sathyapalan , J Shepherd , C Arnett , A. M Coady , E. S Kilpatrick and S. L. Atkin

It has been shown that many women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) insufficient. Both statin treatment and vitamin D supplementation have been shown to improve biochemical hyperandrogenemia, insulin resistance, and markers of inflammation in patients with PCOS, raising the possibility that some of the statin effects are mediated through vitamin D.


We conducted this randomized, double-blind placebo controlled study to assess the effect of atorvastatin on serum 25OHD concentrations in patients with PCOS. Forty medication-naive patients with PCOS were randomized to either atorvastatin 20 mg daily or placebo for 3 months. After completing the initial 3 months of atorvastatin or placebo, both groups of patients participated in a 3-month extension study with metformin 1500 mg daily. We measured changes in 25OHD concentrations by use of tandem mass spectrometry.


Mean (SD) baseline 25OHD concentrations were comparable between the 2 groups [45.9 (2.4) vs 44.8 (1.8) nmol/L; P = 0.7]. There was a significant increase in 25OHD concentrations with atorvastatin [45.9 (2.4) vs 60.8 (3.5) nmol/L] compared with placebo [44.8 (1.8) vs 41.8 (3.2) nmol/L; P = 0.02]. Three-month treatment with metformin maintained the improvement of 25OHD with atorvastatin compared to baseline [45.9 (2.4) vs 61.8 (3.5), P ≤ 0.01). There were no significant changes in 25OHD concentrations in the placebo group after 12 weeks of metformin.


Among patients with polycystic ovary syndrome, 12 weeks of atorvastatin led to a clinically significant rise in 25OHD concentrations. This may represent a beneficial pleiotropic effect of statins on 25OHD concentrations.

  J Shepherd , D Tuthill , B Parry and H. Dowd

To audit emergency department (ED) responses to violence in which children are injured in violence in a European capital city.


A prospective survey of children (aged <16 years) was conducted in Cardiff's only ED using ED software adapted for this purpose. All clinical records were scrutinised for evidence of discussion with and referral to agencies concerned with child protection.


123 children reportedly injured in violence (92 boys) were treated in 2004, six aged 5–9  years; one under 5 years. Overall, 24 (19%) incidents had been reported to the police prior to ED arrival. Only four (3%) prompted documented referral or discussions with other agencies while in the ED. 78% prompted no action apart from treatment of injuries. 13 (10%) children had fractures or were admitted, but only two of these incidents had been drawn to police attention. Only five (4%) were injured at home; a large majority were injured in the street or at school with fists or feet (12 with a weapon) by other children or adults.


In this audit, most violence in which children were injured took place in schools and in the street. For children of secondary school age, ED treatment rarely prompted referral or discussion with agencies responsible for child safety. Particularly since youth and child violence are major national issues, policy and practice in this area were developed and built on disclosure of all such cases to a single referral point in the local authority education department.

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