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Articles by Gh. R. Roshan
Total Records ( 2 ) for Gh. R. Roshan
  Gh. R. Roshan , S. Zanganeh Shahraki , D. Sauri and R. Borna
  Urban sprawl beginning in the developed countries around 1950 is currently experienced in almost all countries. Many studies on the effects of urban sprawl indicate the emergence of harmful effects of this phenomenon. One of the most important environmental effects is the changes in climate. The purpose of this research was to identify the relation between urban sprawl components of Tehran with changes in climate variables. To this end, two data sets have been used to study the relation between these elements and components. The first data set included climatic elements such as rainfall, temperature, the percent of relative humidity and the percent of calm wind, as well as its mean speed for a period of 54 years (1953-2006). The second set of data was formed by components relevant to urban sprawl such as city area, private cars per capita, population density and number of urban population. Pearson correlation and multiple regression methods have been applied to compare and identify the relation between climatic components with urban sprawl indices. Results of correlation indicate that among the 5 aforementioned climatic components, annual rainfall and the mean of wind speed do not appear to have significant relation with sprawl, but the oscillations in percent of relative humidity and percent of calm wind seem to have a significant relation with Tehran sprawl. Consequently and using multivariate regression, it was concluded that the most important factor in the increasing temperature of Tehran, is the number of cars; the most important factor in increasing the percent of relative humidity is the area of Tehran, whereas the increase of the percent of calm wind may be attributed to the increase of population.
  Gh. R. Roshan , F. Khoshakh lagh , Gh. Azizi and H. Mohammadi
  The present research intends to show the effect of global warming on the trend and patterns of temperature in Iran. The study has been divided into two primary parts, the first of which is an analysis of the country’s temperature trend using the following data measures: the minimum, maximum, and mean seasonal night temperature (the minimum temperature) components, the day temperature (the maximum temperature) component and the mean daily temperature component. This data is specific to the time frame 1951 to 2005 and it was obtained from 92 synoptic and climatology stations around the country. The second part of this research involved simulating and forecasting the effects of global warming on temperature values under conditions in which greenhouse gases have increased. For analyzing these simulations and forecasts the MAGICC SCENGEN model was used and different climate change scenarios were taken into consideration. The results are quite interesting. In the analysis of the country’s current temperature trend and in the forecasting’s, specifically related to time, a significant temperature increase was observed during the summer months. Also, with regard to altitudinal levels, it was evident that stations at higher altitudes show a more significant increase in daily and mean daily temperatures. Taking into account the output mean of the different climate change scenarios, the temperature simulations show a 4.41 °C increase in Iran’s mean temperature by 2100. Most of these temperature increases would occur in the southern and eastern parts of Bushehr, certain coastal regions of the Persian Gulf, eastern and western parts of Fars, Kohgilooye, Boyerahmad, southern parts of Yazd, as well as southern and southeastern parts of Esfahan.
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