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Research Journal of Environmental Sciences
Year: 2009  |  Volume: 3  |  Issue: 1  |  Page No.: 16 - 28

Future Climate Impacts on Chickpea in Iran and ICARDA

M. Gholipoor and A. Soltani    

Abstract: Study the effects of climate change, i.e., increasing temperature (T) and CO2 concentration (C) and changing rainfall (R), on crop systems could help to develop needed adaptation strategies. Subsequently, these strategies can promote and stabilize crop yield. The effects of two future climate scenarios on chickpea was investigated in a full factorial combination of 4 factors (6 locationsx3Cx7Tx3R). The scenarios were reduction of 10% historic R (rainfed conditions) +525 ppm C + 2°C warmer T (year 2050) and declining of 20% historic R (rainfed conditions) +700 ppm C+4°C warmer T (year 2100). This study was performed for ICARDA (from Syria) and five locations of Iran using CYRUS model. The results indicated that for both scenarios, the differential grain yield of rainfed chickpea will be positive in all locations. Since the differential Harvest Index (HI) tended to be mainly negative, the increase in grain yield was not proportional to increase in biomass. By year 2050, it is expected that the stability of yield to be increased for most locations; however, that of yield would be less stable for Tabriz, Mashhad and ICARDA, but more stable for other locations at year 2100. In irrigated conditions, different scenarios had different effects on biomass, HI and yield stability in all locations. The differential grain yield appeared to be negative [0 (ICARDA) to 18%] for year 2050; this was also true for year 2100 (6.3 to 17.1%). Both the results of factorial combination of factors and of probability of occurring temperatures higher than ceiling temperature suggested that to avoid future yield loss in irrigated conditions, chickpea improvement for heat tolerance is inevitable.

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