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Pakistan Journal of Biological Sciences

Year: 2006  |  Volume: 9  |  Issue: 12  |  Page No.: 2318 - 2322

Forecasting Shrimp and Frozen Food Export Earning of Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model

M.E. Haque, M.F. Imam and M.A. Awal

Abstract

The study was to develop models that could be used to make efficient forecast of shrimp and frozen food export earning of Bangladesh. Two types of models, namely, Box-Jenkins type autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for shrimp and frozen food export earning of Bangladesh. The study found that the ARIMA (2,2,0) was the best for both shrimp and frozen food export earning. Among the deterministic type models, the quadratic model is best for both the series. The study also reveals that the ARIMA model is more efficient for short-term forecasting than the quadratic model.

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