Generation Reliability Evaluation and Comparison in Various Power Markets Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Neural Networks
Deregulation policy has caused some changes in the concepts of power systems reliability assessment and enhancement. Generation reliability comparison in 3 kinds of power pool markets was considered: perfect competition, monopoly and oligopoly power markets. Because of power market and generators’ forced outages stochastic behavior, Monte Carlo Simulation was used for reliability evaluation. Also, for creating a unique structure, a feed forward neural network which has similar numerical results in comparison with MCS results, was used for generation reliability evaluation. The proposed method was assessed on IEEE-Reliability Test System. In all cases, generation reliability indices were evaluated with different reserve margins and various load levels. Results were in good agreement with theoretical considerations. If price elasticity of demand increases, reliability will improve. Also, if market becomes more concentrated, reliability will improve.