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Environmental Research Journal

Year: 2011  |  Volume: 5  |  Issue: 4  |  Page No.: 149 - 155

Climate Change Assessment over Zagros During 2010-2039 by Using Statistical Downscaling of ECHO-G Model

F. Abbasi, M. Asmari and H. Arabshahi

Abstract

Because of low special resolution of General Circulation models, they can not predict weather and climate accurately. In this regards weather generator technique have been developed by climatologists to downscale GCM outputs into station scale. In this research, girded meteorological outputs of ECHO-G model including precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and radiation have been downscaled over 18 synoptic stations of Zagros during 2010-2039 with A1 scenario. Results show that the mean annual precipitation will be decreased by 2%, increasing of mean annual temperature by 0.4°C during period of 2010-2039. Maximum increase predicted to occur over Fars, Esfahan provinces. Also thresholds of heavy and extreme rainfall will be increased by 3 and 19%, respectively. In this regards in the future period, the rainfalls will be heavy and flash-flooded and there is a significant decrease in the amount of snow falls.

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