Prospects of Agrifood Green Power in 2050 and Forecasting for 2100 with Sustenable Solutions Based on Ecobioeconomics new Paradigm
Alexandru T. BOGDAN,
In developing countries, 80 percent of the necessary production increase would come from increases in yields and cropping intensity and only 20 percent from expansion of arable land. But the fact is that globally the rate of growth in yields of the major cereal crops has been steadily declining, it dropped from 3.2 percent per year in 1960 to 1.5 percent in 2000.
Many countries will continue depending on international trade to ensure their food security. It is estimated that by 2050 developing countries net imports of cereals will more than double from 135 million metric tonnes in 2008/09 to 300 million in 2050. That is why there is a need to move towards a global trading system that is fair and competitive and that contributes to a dependable market for food. Reform of farm support policies in OECD countries is a welcome step which has led to a decline in the aggregate trade distortion coefficient from 0.96 in 1986 to 0.74 in 2007.
Climate change and increased biofuel production represent major risks for long-term food security. Although countries in the Southern hemisphere are not the main originators of climate change, they may suffer the greatest share of damage in the form of declining yields and greater frequency of extreme weather events. Studies estimate that the aggregate negative impact of climate change on African agricultural output up to 2080-2100 could be between 15 and 30 percent.