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Biometrika

Year: 2010  |  Volume: 97  |  Issue: 2  |  Page No.: 389 - 404

Calibrating parametric subject-specific risk estimation

T Cai, L Tian, H Uno, S. D Solomon and L. J. Wei

Abstract

For modern evidence-based medicine, decisions on disease prevention or management strategies are often guided by a risk index system. For each individual, the system uses his/her baseline information to estimate the risk of experiencing a future disease-related clinical event. Such a risk scoring scheme is usually derived from an overly simplified parametric model. To validate a model-based procedure, one may perform a standard global evaluation via, for instance, a receiver operating characteristic analysis. In this article, we propose a method to calibrate the risk index system at a subject level. Specifically, we developed point and interval estimation procedures for t-year mortality rates conditional on the estimated parametric risk score. The proposals are illustrated with a dataset from a large clinical trial with post-myocardial infarction patients.

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