Abstract: The situation of national territorial and ecological security is getting more serious in China. In this study, it is necessary to conduct relative study on territorial development risk evaluation which is from the aspect of based on carrying capacity theory. The relative study can provide an essential method to guide reasonable territorial development, optimize the spatial structure of territorial development and implement the spirit of ecological civilization construction in 18th NCCPC report. In this study, an elaborate review of previous research was carried out firstly, followed by the theoretical discussion on the meaning, conception models and evaluation methods of territorial development risk evaluation. Then two models were built, respectively, which are territorial development risk conception model based on D-P-S-I-R framework and three-dimensional risk matrix evaluation zoning model. Finally, an empirical study was carried out based on North Bay Economic Zone in Guangxi province with reference to these two models. The result shows that territorial resource and its security condition is not in optimistic situation in this region. This study can make up some blanks of current research in some extent and point out the direction for further study. In the meantime, this study hopes to provide scientific basis for making regional territorial development decision and perfecting the management institution of territorial development.