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Journal of Applied Sciences

Year: 2006 | Volume: 6 | Issue: 1 | Page No.: 57-61
DOI: 10.3923/jas.2006.57.61
The Implications of WTO Agreement on Production and Consumption of Wheat in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis
Abdul Qayyum Mohsin, Tahir Mukhtar and Sajida Jabine

Abstract: The present study was conducted by using time series data of wheat production, consumption, domestic wholesale and farm gate prices and international prices to evaluate the impact of trade liberalization under WTO regime. The demand and supply elasticity was found inelastic that is –0.131 and 0.240, respectively. The elasticity of price transmission of wholesale price of wheat with respect to international price of wheat is 1.213. Thus expected 7% increase in international price of wheat due to trade liberalization, would increase wholesale price by 8.50% in Pakistan. Thus Rs. 8750 ton-1 wholesale price of wheat in 2003, which was taken as a base year, would become Rs. 9494 ton-1 after trade liberalization at current market price, whereas, price transmission elasticity of farm gate price with respect to wholesale price, is 0.98. Since wholesale price is expected to increase by 8.5% under total liberalization, farm gate price to be received by farmers in Pakistan is expected to increase by 8.33% that is from 8125 to 8802 ton-1.With a demand elasticity estimate of -0.131, domestic consumption is expected to fall by 1.11% that is from 18303 thousand tones to 18100 thousand tones. Loss in consumer surplus would be Rs. 15226 millions at current market price.

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How to cite this article
Abdul Qayyum Mohsin, Tahir Mukhtar and Sajida Jabine, 2006. The Implications of WTO Agreement on Production and Consumption of Wheat in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis. Journal of Applied Sciences, 6: 57-61.

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