Wei Wang
School of Graduate, Harbin University of Commerce, People�s Republic of China
Weishuang Qu
School of Economics, Harbin University of Commerce, People�s Republic of China
Zhihao Wang
Model Laboratory, Millennium Institute, United State of America
Chang Liu
Model Laboratory, Millennium Institute, United State of America
ABSTRACT
Since the reform and opening up in China, the transfer of rural surplus labor force has made great achievements but there were some difficulties that can not be ignored. From an objective perspective, at present there were a large number of rural surplus labor forces in China rural areas, who are not high quality, strong farmers mentality and monotonic diversion channels, resulting in so slow transfer process. In the study, it was firstly assumed that if the marginal revenue is different in various industries or trades, farmers seeking profit maximization will reach the better situation. The second, the surplus rate of agricultural labor force can be calculated by SPSS statistical software. The average wage of urban employment workers was regarded as the marginal revenue of non-agricultural labor force. The average wage of agriculture (forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries) workers was regarded as the marginal revenue of agricultural labor force in rural areas. The exponential function was used to fit the time series of the average wage. Finally, the agricultural surplus labor force was estimated and forecasted in China from 2012 to 2040.
PDF References Citation
How to cite this article
Wei Wang, Weishuang Qu, Zhihao Wang and Chang Liu, 2013. Estimation and Forecast of the Agricultural Surplus Labor Force in China from 2012 to 2040. Journal of Applied Sciences, 13: 3921-3925.
DOI: 10.3923/jas.2013.3921.3925
URL: https://scialert.net/abstract/?doi=jas.2013.3921.3925
DOI: 10.3923/jas.2013.3921.3925
URL: https://scialert.net/abstract/?doi=jas.2013.3921.3925
REFERENCES
- Chen, Z., Q. Chen and Y. Li, 2012. Empirical study on the influence of rural labor transfer upon rural economic development in China Jiangxi-based on industrial structure deviation. J. Serv. Sci. Manage., 5: 180-186.
CrossRef - Dimova, R. and F.C. Wolff, 2011. Do downward private transfers enhance maternal labor supply? evidence from around Europe. J. Population Econ., 3: 911-933.
CrossRef - Manuel, A.G., 2012. Equilibrium dynamics in the neoclassical growth model with habit formation and elastic labor supply. Theoretical Econ. Lett., 5: 465-469.
CrossRef - Wang, W., J. Wang and Z. Wang, 2012. Prediction of the surplus rate of rural labor force in China from 2012 to 2050. Modern Economy, 3: 557-562.
CrossRef - Yao, S., Y. Guo and X. Huo, 2010. An empirical analysis of the effects of China's land conversion program on farmers' income growth and labor transfer. Environ. Manage., 45: 502-512.
CrossRefDirect Link - Zhong, T.Y., X.Y. Zhang and X.J. Huang, 2008. Impact of labor transfer on agricultural land use conversion at rural househ old level based on logit model. Chin. Geographical Sci., 4: 300-307.
CrossRef